F-35s For Canada: What's Next?

           I'm sure we've all heard the news by now, that the RCAF is finally getting a new fighter after over a decade of delays in selecting a replacement. Eighty eigth brand new F-35s will be on the way which if I remember correctly, is a vastly different number than what we planned to buy as far back as 2010. It's a plane that no doubt did have teething troubles in its development but like most aircraft did overcome them eventually and has proved itself as capable in the hands of the Israelis. It's now a promising platform that's fast on its way to becoming one of the NATO standards, even with NATO countries who opt to use homegrown designs- it might even become the next F-16, enjoying a long and promising career, which if the CF-18 is anything to go off certainly will with the RCAF. So what's next with Canada? Can we predict what's next on the wishlist for the armed forces?

          I think we certainly can, and I don't think I have to look further than what we all know is happening in Ukraine. For over a month Russia has been waging an aggressive and expansionist war which Ukraine has magnificently resisted against all odds. One of the most effective weapons we've seen in the course of the war so far is the use of the TB2 drone; a small, cheap armed UAV from Turkey. The TB2 first saw service used against insurgents in Syria by Turkey, but has proved in the hands of Ukraine to be just as effective against a convential enemy as it is against insurgencies. From the footage that's been released so far, the TB2 has been deployed over Ukraine with little opposition and has been effortlessly targeting armored vehicles, troops, and supply columns. Why is it so successful? It's size; not much bigger than a Cessna 150 if not smaller, the TB2 appears to be hard for the Russians to spot with radar when they actually do have their systems running (why they don't half the time in contested airspace is beyond me), and given it's size it's hard to spot from distances a strike aircraft like a Su-25 would be visible. It's no doubt to me that we could potentially end up buying the TB2, purchasing something similar, or even building our own armed UAV down the road given that we've now seen the combat potential of a UAV against a convential threat. Some militaries may even look into replacing some crewed CAS aircraft with small drones like the TB2. It's obvious what to do in a year or two once the new budgets come out, but we'll have to wait and see what the government does with baited breath.

          Speaking of budgets, let's talk NATO countries. Germany has recently vastly expanded its military budget in the wake of the war Russia is unjustly waging against Ukraine. With that budget, they could be buying F-35s they initially ruled out, but a lot of that budget will be going to minor things as well. But let's not talk about the little things. If we are to expand our budget accordingly (which we should), we could end up buying more F-35s than the initial batch of 88. I've also seen the idea floated that we could end up purchasing more logistics aircraft, specifically aerial refuelling tankers which would also be a blessing. Another idea I've floated in my head, which I'm sure others have as well is that the Snowbirds (the RCAF's public representatives) do need a new aircraft. If there is a budget increase where more new aircraft are on the table, any of those three options wouldn't really hurt. 

          One thing I'm sure has lingered in the minds of others is the question of the CF-18- what happens to all the aircraft we have in service? Most will be sent to storage for a little bit, then either turned into gate guards, sent to museums, or scrapped. However, I do think we still have some use for a handful. It wouldn't hurt to keep a squadron's worth of the airframes in the best shape operational for a few more years to operate in tandem with our new F-35s for whatever roles we need (interception roles over the north come to mind) and then phase them out with a different type to operate in tandem as the RCAF has done in the past with other types, or purchase more F-35s. Who knows if that will actually happen, but it's one of the more plausible outcomes for the twilight of the CF-18's long and colorful career.

          I'm looking forward to see where the RCAF goes in the very near future with spending, as I'm sure a lot of aviation fanatics are. What I do hope however is that we never do have to fire a shot in anger and being a Ukrainian-Canadian, I hope peace will find Ukraine again soon- but facing down a new cold war, we along with the rest of NATO should always be ready and have the upper hand. What do you think? Do you think any of these options I outlined in this article are possible? If you'd like to leave your thoughts below, leave a comment.